THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
← THE ORIGINAL WEEK 6 COLUMN, UNCHANGED
The card does not change. Five sides and five weather unders went to print on Tuesday and every one of them is still on the page, still staked, and will be graded exactly as printed. What changes on a Friday is what those tickets are worth, and on that question the market has been generous. Of my ten printed numbers, four are now better than the consensus number, four are the same, and two are worse.
The thing being measured is called closing line value, and it is the nearest thing this business has to a report card that does not depend on how Sunday turns out. A ticket that beats the closing number is worth more than the price paid for it, because the closing number is the best-informed price there is. I do not have the close yet, so I am using today's consensus as a stand-in. It will move again before kickoff, and the Saturday post will say where it went.
Be careful whose credit this is. The biggest number on the page, five full points on Carolina, exists because Philadelphia's quarterback was ruled out this week with a blood clot in his calf, and nothing in my model saw that coming. That is luck. I will take it and I will not file it under things I know. Priced against today's consensus, the printed card is worth about +$6.49 on $171.24 staked, or 3.8 percent, if the market closes where it sits and the historical wind rates hold. That is an expected value, not a forecast; a card this size swings about $59 either way on a single Sunday.
The printed card against today's market
Consensus as of Friday morning, October 16, standing in for the closing line. “Points” is how much better (+) or worse (−) my printed number is than the consensus.
| Printed play | Consensus now | Best price now | Points | Win prob. at my number | Needs to win | Exp. value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL +3.0 (+100) BET · $15.11 | +1.5 | +1.5 (−110 FD) | +1.5 | 55.9% | 50.0% | +$1.78 |
| ARI +12.5 (−105) BET · $15.11 | +12.5 | +12.5 (−107 CZR) | 0.0 | 52.0% | 51.2% | +$0.24 |
| KC −8.5 (−105) LEAN · $5.04 | −7.5 | −7.5 (−112 MGM) | −1.0 | 44.8% | 51.2% | −$0.63 |
| LV +5.5 (−108) LEAN · $5.04 | +4.5 | +5.5 (−115 FD) | +1.0 | 55.6% | 51.9% | +$0.36 |
| CAR +1.5 (−115) LEAN · $5.04 | −3.5 | −3.5 (−107 CZR) | +5.0 | 64.1% | 53.5% | +$1.00 |
| DAL at GB UNDER 52.5 (−105) BOARD · $25.18 | 53 | U 53.5 (−115 DK) | −0.5 | 53.8% | 51.2% | +$1.26 |
| PIT at TB UNDER 40.5 (−115) BOARD · $25.18 | 39.5 | U 39.5 (−108 CZR) | +1.0 | 60.5% | 53.5% | +$3.32 |
| HOU at JAX UNDER 42.5 (−102) BOARD · $25.18 | 42.5 | U 42.5 (−108 DK) | 0.0 | 52.3% | 50.5% | +$0.90 |
| NYJ at NE UNDER 43.5 (−105) BOARD · $25.18 | 43.5 | U 43.5 (−105 DK) | 0.0 | 48.2% | 51.2% | −$1.48 |
| NO at NYG UNDER 45.5 (−112) BOARD · $25.18 | 45.5 | U 46 (−110 MGM) | 0.0 | 52.3% | 52.8% | −$0.25 |
| The card, $171.24 staked | +$6.49 |
Win probability is the share of NFL games since 1999 in which a bettor holding my number would have won, given that the market settled at today's consensus (pushes count as half). Weather unders start from the historical under rate at that wind speed. Both are estimates; the closing line has not been set.
Carolina at Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts is out. The Eagles ruled him out with a superficial blood clot in his calf, and CBS reports he could miss more than one game. Tanner McKee starts, and I have only 93 dropbacks of his to go on, so treat any number built on him as soft. Saquon Barkley and Dontayvion Wicks did not practice and DeVonta Smith was limited. The Panthers went from a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday to a 3.5-point favorite, and the total fell from 40.5 to 38.5. I printed Carolina plus 1.5 as a lean at five dollars and four cents. It is now a five-point cushion, which is the single largest move on the board.
Chicago at Atlanta. Caleb Williams and Michael Penix both practiced fully in the most recent report, so the two questions I carried all week, whether Williams's hamstring and Penix's ribs would hold, are looking better than I priced them. The line still came toward Atlanta: Chicago from a three-point favorite to 1.5, and the total from 49.5 to 51.5. I cannot tell you for certain why. The injury list is one candidate, with Chicago's guard Joe Thuney, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and linebacker T.J. Edwards among those not practicing, and Atlanta's tackle Jawaan Taylor with them. My printed plus 3 at even money now sits a point and a half through the market and across the three, which is the most valuable number in the sport.
Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Baker Mayfield did not practice, and NFL.com has reported him out at least three weeks with a thumb injury, so rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to start, and Antoine Winfield Jr. did not practice either. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39.5. My under at 40.5 is a point better than the market. Baltimore at Cleveland is not on the card, but Lamar Jackson did not practice and the Ravens moved from a 4.5-point favorite to 3.5, which looks like the market leaning toward Tyler Huntley.
Kansas City against the Chargers is the one that went the wrong way. The Chargers' report is long: tackle Joe Alt, safety Derwin James, cornerback Donte Jackson and receiver Tre Harris did not practice. Kansas City's Rashee Rice missed practice as well. Yet the Chiefs went from minus 8.5 to minus 7.5, a point against my lean. I do not have an explanation and I am not going to invent one. In New York, both Giants tackles, Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor, linebacker Abdul Carter and two defensive backs did not practice, and Chris Olave sat for New Orleans. The line has not moved. That is mildly good for an under, but I cannot put a number on it.
Monday night. San Francisco's list is the loudest of the week: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams all did not practice. The Niners are still a 7.5-point favorite over Washington. If they sit, that number is too high; if it was rest, it is not. It is not on my card.
A note on what these are. They are the practice reports posted on NFL.com as of Friday morning, which means Wednesday and Thursday. The game designations, Out, Doubtful, Questionable, come out with this afternoon's report, and a player who sits on a Wednesday in October is sometimes just resting a veteran's legs. For the model I priced a player who did not practice at roughly a 55 percent chance of missing the game and a limited one at 12 percent. Those two numbers are my assumptions, not measurements, and I will replace them when I have the designations.
The forecast moved again, and it moved the three fragile plays more than the sturdy ones. Green Bay and Tampa Bay are the plays I would stand behind: 13 and 16 miles an hour, with gusts to 33 at Lambeau. Jacksonville in London is back to 10.8 after dipping to 9.4 on Wednesday, and the Giants are back to 10.1 after 8.6, so both are hanging off the rule by a thread. A forecast two days out is a rumor, and a rumor that flips between 8.6 and 10.1 in 48 hours can flip again. New England is the problem. The forecast is 8.7, below my 10 mile an hour rule for the second straight look, and at that wind the historical under rate is 48.2 percent, which loses money at standard prices. The stake stands because published plays are not rewritten. If Saturday still reads below 10, I will tell you plainly that I would not make that bet today.
Wind at kickoff, forecast three times
Mean wind in miles per hour over the first three hours of the game. The rule is 10 or more.
| Game | Tue | Wed | Fri | Gust | Wind band | Under rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas at Green Bay | 17.5 | 16.6 | 13.3 | 33 | 12–15 | 55.2% | On the Board · holds |
| Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay | 18.9 | 20.3 | 16.2 | 20 | 15+ | 56.9% | On the Board · holds |
| Houston vs. Jacksonville (London) | 11.5 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 23 | 10–12 | 52.3% | On the Board · borderline |
| New Orleans at New York Giants | 11.0 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 17 | 10–12 | 52.3% | On the Board · borderline |
| New York Jets at New England | 10.7 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 14 | 5–10 | 48.2% | On the Board · below the rule |
| Carolina at Philadelphia | — | — | 12.6 | 18 | 12–15 | 55.2% | Not on the Board · qualifies |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City | 10.8 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 17 | 10–12 | 52.3% | Not on the Board · borderline |
| Baltimore at Cleveland | 10.4 | 11.4 | 1.8 | 6 | 0–5 | 50.0% | Not on the Board · wind gone |
Under rate is the share of outdoor games since 1999 that finished under the closing total at that recorded wind (n = 596 to 2,226 per band). Forecast wind is not recorded wind. Forecasts from Open-Meteo; Sunday kickoffs 9:30 a.m. ET (London) to 8:20 p.m. ET.
Two games that are not on the Board now qualify. Carolina at Philadelphia has a 12.6 mile an hour forecast, and Kansas City is right at 10.2. Cleveland, which was at 11.4 on Wednesday, is at 1.8. The Board is five plays and it is full. I do not swap plays in after the column prints, so these are on the watch list, not the card. For the record, an under at the current Philadelphia number, 38.5 to 39, prices at about 56 percent against a break-even near 52 percent. I am showing you the number so you can see it, not telling you to bet it.
I re-ran the model on all 13 remaining games with Friday's lines and prices, Williams and Penix practicing, Hurts and Mayfield out, Jackson sitting out practice, and this week's practice reports. Nothing clears. The best side on the board is Arizona plus 12.5 at minus 108, which beats its break-even by 0.8 of a point against my 1.0 bar, and nothing else is closer. At today's prices Atlanta at plus 1.5 and minus 115, Carolina at minus 3.5 and minus 110, and Kansas City at minus 7.5 and minus 115 all fall short of their price. The model still sides with all five printed positions, by 3.5 points on Atlanta, 5.1 on Arizona, 3.3 on Kansas City, 4.3 on Las Vegas and 8.8 on Carolina. I will not lean on that. When I tested this machine across ten years it did not predict which side of a closing line covers, and the Carolina figure rests on a quarterback with 93 dropbacks.
Thursday night. Denver beat Seattle 17–14. There was no play on the card, the 40.5 total went under by nine and a half, and I passed on every receiver prop in Wednesday's update, so there is nothing to grade.
The final injury designations come out this afternoon, and Saturday's re-pull will carry them, the new forecast, and the consensus numbers a day closer to the close. The questions I will answer there: where Atlanta, Las Vegas and Kansas City settle, whether New England's wind rises back to 10, whether Jacksonville and the Giants stay above it, and whether Lamar Jackson plays. The card above does not move. The numbers around it will, and you will get all of them here.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
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