THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
Five sides, every week, whether or not any of them is a bet worth making — because a pool makes you pick five. Each one is tagged with what is actually behind it.
Tampa Bay plus three and a half at home, even money, with an undrafted rookie making his first start. I know. Here is the case. The market moved this game five points when Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb, and it moved on the name. Look at what Mayfield was actually doing: a QBR of 37, then 57, then 17, thirteen sacks in three games and seven turnovers. Tampa is oh and three with him. Now the other sideline: Green Bay runs for forty-nine yards a game, the fewest of any team on this card, and just gave up thirty-five points to Atlanta. A team that cannot run the ball cannot close out a game — it cannot bleed the clock with a lead, which keeps a three-and-a-half-point dog alive into the fourth quarter. The honest risk is the kid: Jalon Daniels has four snaps of NFL football, and a rookie behind a line that has allowed thirteen sacks is how you lose by ten. My number is Bucs 22, Packers 21. At even money it needs only fifty percent to break even. Fifteen dollars.
Miami plus ten and a half in Minnesota, and the biggest disagreement on the card — I make it Vikings by about four. The reason is simple football: a double-digit favorite has to score, and Minnesota's offense gains 4.3 yards a play, the worst of any team on this card. The Vikings are three and oh because their defense is terrific — fourteen sacks, six takeaways, fourteen points a game allowed — not because anybody on offense is scaring people. Kyler Murray came back from his concussion last week and posted a 25 QBR. Justin Jefferson played seven snaps before spraining his ankle; he may play, he may not. Now the Miami side, because I will not pretend it is pretty: the Dolphins are oh and three, they put De'Von Achane on injured reserve with a reported ACL injury, and their defense has not recorded a single sack. I expect Miami to lose. I do not expect Minnesota's offense to win by eleven. Vikings 22, Dolphins 17 in round numbers, 4.2 points apart before the rounding. Fifteen dollars.
San Francisco laying three at home, even money, and this is the simplest play on the card. The 49ers gain 7.35 yards every time they snap the ball — not just the best number on this card, the best by more than eight-tenths of a yard — and Brock Purdy has QBRs of 85, 100 and 86. They have not allowed a sack all season, which tells you the offensive line is winning before the play even develops. Denver's Bo Nix is the opposite of steady: a 13, then an 81, then a 46. The Broncos' defense is allowing 5.6 yards a play. When the best offense in football meets a defense giving up chunks, three points is not much to lay. The one worry is the injury list — receiver Demarcus Robinson is out and Mike Evans was questionable with a hip — but San Francisco has been spreading the ball around all year. 49ers 28, Broncos 22. Fifteen dollars.
Jacksonville plus two and a half in Cincinnati, and I am taking the defense that keeps people out of the end zone, plus the points. The Jaguars have allowed twelve points a game — they held Cleveland to ten and New England to six — and they have taken the ball away six times. Trevor Lawrence is having a quiet, efficient season: QBRs of 95, 51 and 80, and only two turnovers for the whole team. Cincinnati is the more dangerous offense on a good day — Joe Burrow just put up a 92 against Pittsburgh — and to be fair to Cincinnati, the two defenses give up about the same yardage per play; Jacksonville just turns more of those drives into punts and turnovers. This total has climbed from 49.5 to 51.5 since it opened, which tells you the market expects points. When the market expects a shootout, I would rather have the team that has been holding people to twelve points, getting two and a half. Jaguars 25, Bengals 23. Fifteen dollars.
Cleveland plus two and a half at home on Thursday night, even money, in twelve point seven miles an hour of wind. This is a coin flip and I am telling you so: my number is Steelers by less than a point. What makes it worth fifteen dollars is the setting. Short week, division game, two offenses scoring about eighteen points a game apiece, and a wind off the lake that takes the deep ball away from both. In a game like that the points matter more, because nobody is running away with anything. Pittsburgh is also patching its offensive line — two regulars who played nearly every snap the first two weeks did not take an offensive snap last Sunday — and Aaron Rodgers has QBRs of 41, 24 and 68. It clears its price by four-tenths of a percentage point. Browns 20, Steelers 20. Fifteen dollars, and do not bet the rent.
Under forty-two and a half at Soldier Field, ten point eight miles an hour of wind. This is the weather rule, which is behind all four totals on this card and is the only thing I bet with ten years of proof behind it: outdoor games in real wind have gone under 57.7 percent of the time. Wind kills the deep ball, and a team without the deep ball has to drive the whole field in small pieces, which takes longer and stalls more. Chicago is on its backup quarterback, and Case Keenum is a fine game manager — which is another way of saying he is not going to be throwing it forty yards into the wind off the lake. My model actually has this at 45, over the number. It does not get a vote. The weather rule beats my model on totals every time, and I will keep saying so until one of them stops being true. Twenty-five dollars.
Under fifty and a half in Charlotte on Sunday night, and it is a rain play — a sixty-two percent chance across the game window. I will be honest about the football: these are two offenses that like to score. Detroit is putting up thirty-one a game and Carolina threw for three hundred and thirteen a game, and my model has this at 52. But rain does something the box score cannot see. The ball gets slick, receivers drop balls they catch in September sunshine, snaps get fumbled, and coaches stop calling deep shots because a wet football is a turnover waiting to happen. Outdoor games played in rain without much wind — this one is forecast at under five miles an hour — have gone under 59 percent of the time. The history is measured on rain that actually fell, and this is a forecast, so I would like to see it hold through Sunday afternoon. At fifty and a half, the market has priced the offenses and not the weather. Twenty-five dollars.
Under forty-eight and a half in Orchard Park, eleven point four miles an hour of wind — and for once my model agrees, it has this at 46.8. (That is the −1.7 on the card: the edge figure shows where my model sits against the number, and here it sits below it.) The football case is New England. The Patriots are scoring twelve points a game, they have turned it over eight times in three games, and Drake Maye just posted a 20 QBR in a thirty-five-to-six loss. A team that bad on offense does not help anybody get to forty-nine. Buffalo can score on anybody — thirty-four a game — but a Bills team up two touchdowns in a wind does what every good team does: runs the ball, shortens the game, and goes home. Twenty-five dollars.
Under thirty-eight and a half on Thursday night, twelve point seven miles an hour of wind, the stiffest breeze on the slate. Thirty-eight and a half is already one of the lowest numbers you will ever see, and the natural question is whether the market has squeezed all the juice out. I checked. Weather games posted under forty have still gone under 58 percent of the time over ten years — the market shades these numbers down and never shades them far enough. The football: two offenses scoring about eighteen points a game apiece, a Pittsburgh line missing two regulars, a short week, a division game where everybody knows everybody's plays. The price is minus one-fifteen, which is steep, and it clears by a single point of probability. Twenty-five dollars.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
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