THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
Five plays. Five is the ceiling, not the assignment, and this is the first Sunday all year the schedule handed me enough lousy air to reach it. Came back 3-2: $143.21 in front of the window, $25.97 of it mine at the end, bankroll $1,062.38 up to $1,088.35.
The three that landed were the three I'd have picked out of a lineup. Baltimore and the Rams put twenty points on the board between them on Monday night. Kansas City and Detroit stopped four short of a 51.5. Chicago and Washington got to 49 on a 49.5, which is a winner by half a point and takes about nine months off a man.
The two that didn't: Carolina and Dallas hung 57 with the flags standing straight out, and Green Bay won by nine while I was laying fourteen. Two touchdowns is a lot to give away on four-tenths of a point of opinion, which is roughly what I had.
Fourteen on the wind gauge in Green Bay and it buys me exactly nothing, because the weather only pays on totals and this is a side. Cincinnati arrives with Lucas Patrick out and Shemar Stewart doubtful, the Packers are short Christian Watson and Devonte Wyatt, and after the model chews through all of it I get 14.4 against a market fourteen. That is two touchdowns laid on four-tenths of a point, 50.5 percent, and a promise I made in September to print a side every week.
Fifteen on the wind in Charlotte and two teams limping into prime time. Dallas is without CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin, which is the top of the target chart erased, plus Miles Sanders and a starting guard; Carolina plays without Chuba Hubbard and Taylor Moton. Take that much missing skill, stand it in a stiff breeze on Sunday night, and a 47.5 looks less like a total than a dare. My number is 45.7 at 52.9 percent.
Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. I could end the paragraph there and you would have the whole bet. Add Roquan Smith gone off the defense, Chidobe Awuzie out of the secondary, 15 miles an hour on a Monday night, and a market that has only been willing to walk this down to 43.5 while my sheet reads 41.8. A substitute quarterback throwing into that kind of air is not the man who argues me off an under.
Fifty-one and a half is the fattest number I have ever taken the under on, and yes, it makes me itch — these two can put up points in a phone booth. What tips it is 13 miles an hour and a Detroit team traveling without Taylor Decker and Giovanni Manu up front and Alim McNeill in the middle of the defense. Model says 50.4, 52.2 percent. I would rather be a point light on a big total than skip the only thing I do well.
Washington plays this one without Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, which is most of the passing game, and without Sam Cosmi, which is a good piece of the protection. Twelve on the gauge, 49.5 on the board, 48.4 on my sheet, 52.1 percent. Chicago being down Grady Jarrett argues the other way and I am not moved: a receiver room that thin does not throw for 25 points in a crosswind.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
Disclaimer: The Betting Fool is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.