THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
The card went to four this week because four games were worth an opinion, and it came back 2-2. Risked $116.56, lost $16.10 of it, $1,113.51 down to $1,097.41. First red ledger since the opener.
The one that hurt is the one I liked most. Seventeen miles an hour in Miami on Sunday night, the strongest wind on any sheet I've had this year, 53.3 percent, my biggest stake of the season at $34.88 — and the Jets and Dolphins went out and hung 48. Baltimore and Kansas City then put 57 on a 48.5 to close the weekend. Two unders, two shootouts, in the exact conditions that are supposed to prevent them.
Fifty-seven percent means that forty-three percent of the time you are sitting there in the fourth quarter watching a touchdown you specifically bet against. That is the job. Denver holding Cincinnati to three points is the only reason this weekend reads as a shrug instead of a groan.
Ten points is a lot to lay on a bet I have already confessed is a coin flip, but the sides are what they are: Detroit 10.4 on my sheet, ten on the board, 50.5 percent staring back at me. Cleveland arrives thin up front again and the Lions are short Zach Cunningham, Daniel Thomas and Sione Vaki, and none of it moves the number far enough to be interesting. It gets the small bet it deserves.
Seventeen miles an hour is the loudest figure on any page I've printed this season, and it drags my total down to 42.3 against a market 44.5 — two full points, 53.3 percent, the largest wager I've placed all year. Miami's corner room is down Storm Duck and Jason Marshall Jr., the Jets are without Jermaine Johnson II and Kene Nwangwu, and honestly the injury report is a footnote here. I am betting the air.
Ten miles an hour at Arrowhead on a Monday night gets me to 47.7 against 48.5, which is about the thinnest wind edge I'll accept. It comes with an honest problem: Baltimore travels without Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington, and a defensive front that depleted is how a 48.5 becomes a 55-point evening. The weather rule wins the argument, but it wins it by an inch.
Twelve miles an hour in the mountains, my number 43.9 against a market 44.5, 51.7 percent. Nothing clever about it — it's the bet I make every week the flags are stiff. Cincinnati comes west without Noah Fant and Shemar Stewart, and a visiting offense missing its tight end in that kind of crosswind is not the group that runs a total over.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
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