THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
Three more, three more winners. $75.98 at risk, $69.07 in profit, and the bankroll clears eleven hundred for the first time — $1,044.44 to $1,113.51. Season high, which is a grander phrase than week three deserves.
Two unders in double-digit wind and one side I'd have skipped if the format let me. Cleveland and Green Bay managed 23 points on a 41.5 that was already sitting low, Jacksonville and Houston scraped to 27 on Thursday night, and Indianapolis buried Tennessee by three touchdowns. When the weather does the work the model looks brilliant. It isn't. It is standing in the right doorway with its hands in its pockets.
Six straight is six bets. My neighbor's dog has been right six times running. Ask me again in November.
Eight miles an hour in Nashville isn't weather, it's a nice day, so this lands in the coin-flip column with every other side I print. Tennessee will be without JC Latham and T'Vondre Sweat, with Kevin Winston Jr. doubtful on the back end, and the model turns all of that into Indianapolis by 6.5 against a market six. Half a point, 50.5 percent, no speeches.
Eleven miles an hour on a Thursday night between two outfits that would honestly rather play defense, and a total the market has already walked down to 43.5. My sheet says 42.8. Jacksonville is short Wyatt Milum on the interior and Houston is a corner light with Jaylin Smith out, but let's be plain about it: the wind is why I'm here.
Forty-one and a half is a small number and I am going smaller, 41.0, with 10 miles an hour coming off the water. This is exactly the bet the market believes it has already made — it shades a windy total down a point and change, then stops, and ten years of Sundays say stopping there is a mistake. Green Bay without Jayden Reed doesn't hurt the case any.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
Disclaimer: The Betting Fool is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.