Three For Three And Nothing To Brag About

Brock Purdy is out and I am still laying three points on the road, which should tell you exactly how thin this week's coin flip is — San Francisco 3.4 on my sheet against a market three, 50.5 percent, a rounding error with a bet slip attached. New Orleans is missing Julian Blackmon, Chase Young and Trevor Penning, which is roughly as much football as the Niners are missing at quarterback. Somebody in this game has to be favored.

Twelve miles an hour in Kansas City on a Monday night, and the widest disagreement on the card: my number is 44.9, the board wants 46.5. The Chiefs are without Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals, the Eagles are down Dallas Goedert and Will Shipley, and two offenses short their secondary pass-catchers in that kind of air is the precise game the last ten years bury. Fifty-two point seven percent, and I'd like it better if the flags were snapping harder.

Nothing but still air under the Indianapolis roof, so the weather rule sits this one out and the model's raw total takes over — 45 against a market 43.5. Indianapolis will be without Charvarius Ward and Jaylon Jones, two starting corners gone on the same afternoon, while Denver is short Dre Greenlaw and Nate Adkins in the middle of its defense. Points follow an empty secondary, and they follow it faster with a lid on the building.