THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
The Betting Fool here, back from a Monday spent staring at a ledger that didn't improve no matter how long I stared at it. Week 2 was not kind. The model called for a competitive game in Green Bay and got a laugher instead, and no amount of EPA/play can account for an offensive line that simply stopped showing up. Here's the full accounting — wins, losses, and the math behind both — because transparency doesn't take a bye week.
Still, two of five graded, and the total in Philadelphia hit almost to the point. The bankroll takes a real hit this week. It's not the number I wanted to write on a Tuesday, but it's the number that's true, and true is the only thing this column promises.
The model liked Chicago's offensive line matchup and had this one at Green Bay -2.9 — nearly a touchdown tighter than Vegas's -6.5. Then the offensive line simply didn't show up, and no regression coefficient accounts for that.
Both defenses did exactly what the model expected — tightened up in the red zone and traded field goals for touchdowns. Philadelphia's clock-eating fourth quarter sealed a total the model liked from Tuesday on.
A blocked extra point and a two-minute drill Denver's defense couldn't find an answer for. The model isn't built to price in special-teams collapse, and this week it cost us the whole game, not just the number.
Finished with 82 yards on a night the model wanted him held under 68.5. Philadelphia's coverage sagged more than expected in the second half.
94 yards on eight targets. The model's read on Dallas's zone coverage was the one clean call of the week.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
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