THE BETTING FOOL
By a Man Who Should Know Better
The Betting Fool here, folks, making his season debut with a thousand dollars, a laptop that's seen better decades, and a regression model that doesn't care about your favorite team's uniform colors. Every Thursday from here on, I open the books, run the numbers, and tell you exactly where the market's wrong. No cherry-picking, no scrubbing the losses off the record later. If the model's an idiot this week, you'll read about it right here next to the winners.
This is Week 1, so there's no bankroll history to show you yet — just a clean $1,000 and five plays I'd back with my own rent money, which, let's be honest, is sort of what this is.
Houston's pass rush is legitimate, but Tennessee's offensive line held up better than the market expects, and the model likes a game that stays inside a touchdown all four quarters.
Two defensive coordinators who'd rather bore you to a win than lose an exciting one. Both offenses have been middling in the red zone, and the model's total sits nearly four points under the number.
Washington on the road, off a short week, against a Giants defense playing with something to prove. The model liked it Tuesday. The Giants' front seven had other plans.
Atlanta's offensive line has been the best-kept secret in the division, and this matchup funnels everything to the ground game.
Hill's speed shows up on the box score more than the tape suggests some weeks, and Buffalo's secondary has quietly tightened since August.
“Bet less than you brag, learn more than you lose, and never trust a tout who smiles too much.”
— The Betting Fool
Disclaimer: The Betting Fool is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.